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Problemas del desarrollo

Print version ISSN 0301-7036

Abstract

ROSAS ROJAS, Eduardo. Inflation and inflation uncertainty in selected Latin American countries. Prob. Des [online]. 2019, vol.50, n.198, pp.113-144.  Epub Nov 16, 2019. ISSN 0301-7036.  http://dx.doi.org/10.22201/iiec.20078951e.2019.198.64822.

This paper studies the feedback relation between inflation and inflation uncertainty in six Latin American economies during 1960-2018. Uncertainty was calculated using conditional volatility, estimated using GJR-GARCH-M models. The main conclusions are as follows: the majority of economies conformed to the Friedman-Ball hypothesis; the Cukierman-Meltzer hypothesis was corroborated in the cases of Bolivia, Mexico, Paraguay; positive shocks were found to have a significant impact on inflation uncertainty, and, thanks to the adoption of inflation targets (ITs) by governments, there was empirical evidence that volatility decreased in those economies which implemented ITs.

Keywords : inflation; inflation uncertainty; monetary policy; monetary aggregate M1; GARCH models.

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