Abstract

FIGOLI, Moema G. B.  and  RODRIGUEZ WONG, Laura L.. El camino hacia la estabilización demográfica y el proceso de envejecimiento en América Latina: una ilustración a partir de algunos países seleccionados. Pap. poblac [online]. 2003, vol.9, n.35, pp.29-43. ISSN 2448-7147.

This article applies the concept of population momentum for evaluating future population growth in five Latin American countries, assuming a decline rate of fertility to replacement levels. Simulations show that in countries with high mortality and growth rates, i.e. Haiti and Guatemala, the slope of the stable distribution falls faster than low mortality countries as age increases. This theoretical exercise, suggest that for all simulations the population size of the Latin American countries that started fertility transition several decades ago will not experience a significant growth. The population size of Brazil and Argentina, even at their ultimate theoretical size will not duplicate. Finally, although the ultimate size of the population will be reached theoretically in 400/500 years-time; the "almost-stability" state, for the five countries analyzed, will be reached, as everybody would expect, at some point between 2050 and 2100.

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