Crossover Patterns Between Migratory Movements and Demographic Patterns at the Latin American and Global Levels

The world is aging. Over the next few decades, the current trend of falling fertility rates and increasing life expectancy shall lead regions of Europe, the Americas, and Asia to see their populations grow older and shrink. According to data provided by the United Nations Organization (^{UN-DESA, 2019b}), currently the fertility rate in Europe is 1.6 and in North America it is less than 1.9, that is, well below the replacement level needed to sustain stable population levels.

Sustaining economic growth will be a major challenge for countries due to the low number of workers of economically active age compared to people in a dependent relationship. In addition, the pressure that this reality will exert on the States should be considered to the extent that spending must be increased in areas such as care, health and pensions for an increasingly aging population.⁵

Although the downward trend in the fertility rate and the increase in life expectancy ensure a drop in demographic growth in practically all populations on a global level, this will not occur homogeneously. Between 2019 and 2050, the number of people aged 65 and over worldwide is projected to double (^{UN-DESA, 2019a}). In this sense, graph 1 reflects the situation described, evidencing that, except for the African continent-which is expected to continue growing by the end of the century-in no other region is a positive population growth projected, but rather, on the contrary, a sustained drop thereof is foreseen.

Source: Own elaboration based on the UN population projections (^{UN-DESA, 2019a}).

Graph 1 Evolution and Population Projections by Continent (1950-2100) 

Regarding migratory trends, as observed in Graph 2, although the number of international migrants worldwide has increased, it has remained relatively stable in proportion to the world population (Organización Internacional para las Migraciones [OIM], 2019). What has experienced an increase, however, has been non-migratory mobility mainly due to the development and improvement of means of transport (^{De Haas et al., 2020}).

Source: Own elaboration based on data from the World Migration Report 2020 (^{OIM, 2019}).

Graph 2 Percentage of International Migration in Relation to World Population 

In the case of Latin America and the Caribbean, the reality is not far from what has been described so far. A recent report from the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (^{Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe [CEPAL], 2020}) gives an account of how the region’s population has begun to age rapidly, projecting that by 2040 the population of people over 60 years of age shall exceed that of those under 15 years old. However, the same report highlights a certain heterogeneity in the region in terms of the rate of aging.

The demographic transition is estimated to have started in Latin America around the 1950s when, in the region, there were significant improvements in life expectancy while the fertility rate began to fall (^{CEPAL, 2020}). Due to this occurrence, and as observed in the more developed regions of the Global North, the demographic trend in Latin America and the Caribbean is beginning to have a significant impact on growth, leading to significant changes in the age structure of its population pyramid.

Regarding the demographic dividend, it is believed that it initiated its transformation process in the region during the 1970s while the dependency ratio began to decline (^{CEPAL, 2020}) although, as the same organization indicates:

It is projected that between 2020 and 2025 the dependent population (under 15 years and 65 years and over) will grow more than the working-age population (15 to 64 years), which entails an increase in the dependency ratio and the end of the demographic dividend in the region (^{CEPAL, 2020, p. 18}).

To the challenges presented by these demographic trends, we should add the change of course in the migratory dynamics that the region began to experience in the mid-20th century. From that period forward, Latin America and the Caribbean gradually went from being regions receiving international migration to an area with increasing emigration. Between the end of the 20th century and the beginning of the 21st century, this dynamic translated into, among other things, the departure of hundreds of young people of economically active age. This, when assessed together with the current demographic scenario, raises serious questions about how Latin American and Caribbean countries shall face the challenges in the short and medium term in order to slow down or even reverse the decline in their population growth rate.

Addressing the Link Between Argentina’s Immigration Policy and its Impact on the Country’s Demographic Trends

Migration has historically played a fundamental role within the Argentinian demographic patterns. Since the mid-nineteenth century, the Argentinian political theorist and scholar Juan B. Alberdi alluded to the fact that nations in the making that are vastly unpopulated, such as Argentina, have no other option than to adapt and be open to immigration (^{FitzGerald & Cook- Martín, 2014}).

Although the history, characteristics, and policies aimed at managing migratory movements have been widely studied over time, certain aspects related to the study of both the contributions and the challenges behind migration remain insufficient. In this sense, there are not many studies that have addressed the case of Argentina and due to this, the present investigation seeks to approach the opportunities that migrations can offer in a demographic scenario such as the one projected for the country in the coming years. It is possible, however, to link the research topic to academic papers that have addressed, from various perspectives, the link between migratory trends and demographic dynamics in Argentina.

In a recent study carried out by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) together with the International Labor Organization (ILO) (^{Organización para la Cooperación y el Desarrollo Económicos & Organización Internacional del Trabajo [OCDE/OIT], 2018}) on the contribution of migrants to the Argentinian economy, it is argued that:

The age structure of immigrants suggests that they may contribute little, but positively, to Argentina taking advantage of the demographic dividend (...) However, the inflows of young immigrants or those returning older immigrants who are in the country today would have to increase dramatically to help Argentina maintain a lower dependency ratio after 2040 (p. 56).

The latter is reinforced by a report on population projections for Latin America and the Caribbean prepared by CEPAL (2020), which provides an overview of the general situation in the region and foresees the end of the Argentinian demographic dividend by the year 2040, while mentioning the importance that intraregional migration has been acquiring in Latin American countries. In this paper, CEPAL emphasizes the need to constantly monitor and review population estimates given the dynamism with which demographic changes are taking place in the region, especially with regard to the decline in fertility and migratory movements.

^{Jachimowicz (2006}), ^{Nicolao (2010}) and ^{Mármora (2015}) trace a journey on the contribution that migratory flows have had on Argentinian population growth. They also delve into the mutations that the country has experienced as it went from being a society that traditionally received migration to one increasingly characterized by its growing emigration. The authors also reflect the significant drop that has occurred in the representation of the foreign population over the total population in the country, which went from being 30% in 1914 to less than 5% today.

Likewise, works such as Susana ^{Novick’s (2008}) cannot fail to be mentioned, where the author makes a historical analysis of the impact that the three major Argentinian immigration laws have had on the country’s migration dynamics and considers the importance of studying migrations as a demographic phenomenon. ^{Modolo (2016}) for his part, contributes by deepening, from a historical-demographic approach, the study of migrations in Argentina. ^{González (2015}) also contributes to the field of study by making an assessment of the demographic projections for Argentina, predicting, like CEPAL and the UN, a drop in the arrival of migrants to the country which, in the author’s estimates, by 2050 would be null.

Evolution and Projection in the Migratory Trends of Argentina

Since its origins as a State, Argentina’s migration has played a leading role in the demographic dynamics. Already in the first national census carried out during the year 1869, migrants represented 12 percent of the total population, a percentage that, by the year 1914 would rise to 30 percent (^{Presidencia de la República Argentina, 1872}). The battered economic and social situation in which a large part of the European continent was plunged at that time, together with the opportunities offered by a country in its formation with a wide demand for labor, were determining factors in the arrival of thousands of migrants to the Argentinian territory.⁷

During this period, ^{Lattes (1974}) identified three five-year periods in which migration even exceeded the natural growth rate of the Argentinian population. In the first five-year period (1885-1890) the net migration rate exceeded the natural growth rate by 22 points. In the second (1905-1910) the difference was six points respectively and, for the last five-year period (1910- 1915) the difference was only 0.1 point.

Source: Own elaboration based on data from National Institute of Statistics and Census of Argentina (^{Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Censo [INDEC], 2020}) and UN-DESA (2019a).

* The data for 2015 and 2019 were calculated based on estimates from the UN-Department of Economic and Social Affairs.

Graph 3 Evolution of the Percentage of Foreigners Over the Total Population in Argentina 

The percentages registered in 1914, however, would begin to undergo a sustained decline due, among other things, to the natural growth of the population as well as a pronounced drop in immigration to the country. By 1947, the national census showed that, although the foreign population in Argentina had not increased exponentially with respect to the last census in 1914, the proportion of the total population, nevertheless, went from 30 to 15% (^{Mármora, 2015}) (Graph 3).

In the following decades, together with the changes that were taking place due to the arrival of migrants in the country,⁸ an increase in the emigration of Argentines began to be registered, mainly to the United States and Spain. The regimes that violated human rights established by the military dictatorships from the 1960s to 1983, together with the economic, social and political fluctuations that occurred throughout this period, were determining factors in the decision of many Argentines to leave the country.

The fall in the net migratory balance during 1960 deepened even more with the last dictatorship that Argentina suffered during the years 1976-1983, as well as due to the economic crisis that hit the country in the 1980s (already in a democratic period). During this period of time, it is estimated that close to 300 000 Argentines left the country (^{Jachimowicz, 2006}), a trend that would continue to consolidate during the following decade and that would reach its peak with the Argentinian crisis that began in 2000 and would explode during the year 2001 (Graph 4).

Source: Own elaboration based on data provided by the UN-Department of Economic and Social Affairs (^{UN-DESA, 2019a}).

Graph 4 Evolution and Projection of the Argentinian net Migration Rate (1950-2100) 

The Argentinian crisis of the early 21st century implied a socioeconomic collapse that also had an impact on the country’s migratory patterns. Between 2000 and 2001 alone, close to 120 000 people left Argentina, which implies that, as mentioned by ^{Nicolao (2010}), “in just two years, the same number of people emigrated from the country that usually did over the course of ten years” (p. 216). These trends support the idea that migratory movements in the region are sensitive to economic and political fluctuations, particularly due to the labor nature of migration in South America (^{OIM, 2017}).⁹

The process of economic recovery that Argentina experienced since 2003 seems to have been one of the determinants in the rebound in migrant arrivals from various corners of Latin America, leading the country to reverse the negative migratory balances that it had been experiencing for some years. Despite the sustained recovery that occurred in the country’s migratory balance, projections indicated that this trend could reverse again as of 2020 due to several factors: the aging of the population of the countries of origin that migrate to Argentina and worse projections in the evolution of the country’s economy, as well as possible transformations in human mobility patterns due to the COVID-19 post-pandemic scenarios.

This trend would partly confirm ^{Kenny’s (2019}) projections regarding a drop in migratory flows, not only in countries with restrictive migration policies, but even in those with open-door migration policies, such as Argentina. According to the author, this is because it is young people who usually migrate, so as the world population ages, more people will choose to stay in their respective countries.

Evolution of Argentina’s Migration Policy

The study of Argentinian migratory policies is not an easy task, although it is of fundamental importance to try to understand the repercussion that this could have had in different periods of time in the migratory dynamics. Doing so could identify patterns that serve to adapt certain aspects of Argentinian politics to the demographic challenges that the country faces.

The enactment in 2004 of the Migration Law (^{Law 25.871 of 2004}) as well as the adoption of various international and regional agreements on migration earned Argentina a notable place within the elite of countries promoting the human rights of migrants. However, despite the great advances in its migration governance, it is possible to notice, even today, the existence of a certain distance between the rights guaranteed by the aforementioned legislation and the way in which they are implemented and impact the lives of immigrants residing in Argentina (^{Instituto de Políticas Públicas en Derechos Humanos [IPPDH] del MERCOSUR, 2014}). With this, the innumerable laws, decrees, and administrative measures that characterized Argentinian migration policy for almost two centuries, became a policy dominated particularly by the discretion of the Executive Branch and the public administration associated with it, taking precedence over the legislative and judicial structures (^{Pacecca, 2001}). This has often exposed migrants to situations of considerable vulnerability.

Argentina’s policy regarding migration has historically been characterized by a fluctuation between policies with an open-door perspective and more restrictive models of the same, without implying a complete closure of the borders. The latter is evidenced, particularly, during the first years of the 20th century where, although migration policy tended to favor the arrival of a certain migratory profile and was characterized by having some restrictive nuances, migrants continued to be received in the country to the point that, during this period, the highest migratory balance in Argentinian history was recorded (^{Mármora, 2015}).

Since its formation as an independent state, Argentina has had among its priorities to populate its vast territory. The Constitution of the Argentinian Nation of 1853 already made explicit, in its Article 25, a preference for immigration from Europe, although it simultaneously prevented the government from limiting or taxing the entry of any immigrant into the national territory.¹⁰

In this sense, according to what ^{FitzGerald and Cook-Martín (2014}) point out, Juan Bautista Alberdi, in the year 1853, made reference to the fact that nations in formation that are very sparsely populated have no choice but to be open to the migration, and this was complemented by arguing that countries begging for population could not afford to be selective regarding the migratory profiles that arrived in their territory. In 1869, Argentina passed the first citizenship law and in 1876, the first Immigration and Colonization Law, known as the “Avellaneda Law” (^{Law 817 of 1876}). The demographic panorama that accompanies this period showed, according to data from the 1869 census, a total population of 1 800 000 inhabitants, the foreign population representing 12% of the total (^{Novick, 2008}; ^{Presidencia de la República Argentina, 1872}).

The immigration policy of that time aimed to attract immigrants to the country in order to boost the development of the population and industry. Argentina encouraged migration to the country through programs that subsidized travel costs, as well as through tax exemptions and housing solutions for newcomers. With this eagerness, it also managed to get the same ships that traveled to Europe with Argentinian products to return full of European workers (^{Fitzgerald & Cook-Martín, 2014}).

Economic instability, as well as a series of military dictatorships beginning in the 1930s, led Argentina’s immigration policy to become increasingly restrictive. The ^{Decree n.n. of 1932} that regulated the entry of foreigners, as well as ^{Decree 8972 of 1938} were based on restrictive criteria and hindered migration based on the origin of the migrants.

In the year 1946, an interesting milestone occurred with the presentation of the draft bill for the basis of immigration, colonization and population (^{Presidencia de la Nación Argentina, 1952}). The law, although based on a restrictive perspective of migration, began to show signs of a change of course in the goals pursued by the country’s migration policy. In this sense, the aforementioned law made reference to the fact that, although the population constitutes one of the fundamental assets of the country, migration policies could no longer continue to be governed by analogies to the 19th century since, although populating continued to be a basic need, the migration policy should be considered for other purposes¹¹ (^{Mármora, 2015}).

Other changes took place in the 1950s, when the de facto government of that time repealed the ^{Constitución de la Nación Argentina de 1949} [1949 Constitution of the Argentinian Nation] and reinstated the ^{Constitución de la Nación Argentina de 1853} [1853 Constitution of the Argentinian Nation], as well as during the 1960s when the growing need for a labor force experienced by Argentina led the government to sign the first bilateral agreements with countries in the Latin American region. Then, the importance of what intraregional migration meant for the country began to become visible and accountable.

The accentuation of economic instability together with increasingly restrictive immigration policies during the 1960s and 1970s gave rise to the first emigration of approximately 185 000 Argentines, which would have increased to an estimated 200 000 people in the following decade (Jachimowickz, 2006). The foreign population in the country also began to decrease during this period, a trend that continued and even extended for more than three decades, bringing net migration rates to their historical lows in the late 20th century and the early 21st century.

In the course of 1981, the General Law on Migration and Immigration Promotion known as the “Videla Law” (^{Law 22.439 of 1981}) was enacted. This law was characterized by the imposition of various obstacles to obtaining residence permits, which resulted in an exponential increase in the number of foreigners in an irregular situation within the country. Along with the restrictions of a certain migratory profile, the law nevertheless relaxed the requirements in order to favor the arrival of highly qualified migrants, as well as those who could contribute capital to the country (^{Novick, 2005}).

With the decline of the dictatorships, the country’s policy began a transition towards a human rights perspective, although at first it did not have a direct impact on migration policy, as it continued to present securitist overtones as in previous years. The Videla Law then in force, together with the profound economic, social and labor problems the country was facing, were sufficient reasons for the government to try to limit the arrival of immigrants to the country by sanctioning various decrees throughout that period.¹²

It was not until the dawn of the 21st century that Argentina began to adopt a new perspective of human rights and development in its migration policy. The signing of the Agreement on Residence of MERCOSUR¹³ in 2002 (^{Estados Partes y Asociados del MERCOSUR, 2002}), the enactment of the Migration Law (^{Law 25.871 of 2004}) known as the “Giustiniani Law” during 2004¹⁴ and the implementation of the program of regularization “Patria Grande” (^{Provision 53.253 of 2005}) in 2005 constitute the normative instruments that, in the words of ^{Alfonso (2012}), give shape to a new orientation of public policy that channels immigration flows and places the migrant as a subject of law.

Unfortunately, Argentina has had advances and setbacks in the application of the Migration Law (^{Law 25.871 of 2004}) as well as in certain discretionary measures approved after its sanction. An example of this is given with the enactment of Decree 70 of 2017, which implied a clear setback in immigration matters as it was based on a strong stigmatization towards immigrants.

Within this framework, behind all the journey made so far through some of the most important milestones in the evolution of Argentinian migration policy, certain lessons can be drawn. A first lesson arises from the fact that, in recent years, the goals pursued behind the Argentinian immigration policy have undergone substantial changes. From being a policy that mainly sought to promote migration in order to populate the extensive and fertile national territory at the end of the 19th century and mid- 20th century, the country’s migration policy, from the early years of the 21st century, began to prioritize actions to guarantee the rights of immigrants and strengthen ties with Argentinian citizens abroad, as well as take advantage of the opportunities that migration brings for the economic, social and cultural development of the country.¹⁵

A second lesson arises from the analysis of Graph 5 where it observes that, despite the fact that migration rates have already shown a drop since the mid-twentieth century, the lowest records coincided precisely with the periods when the most restrictive policies in terms of migratory were in force. It is not possible, however, to argue that the securitist perspective has been the determining factor behind the collapse of the migratory balance, nor that its recovery is due to the change in perspective of Argentinian migration policy so far in the 21st century.

Source: Own elaboration based on data from ^{INDEC (2020)} and ^{UN-DESA (2019a)}.

Graph 5 Evolution and Projection of the Argentinian Net Migration Rate According to the Validity of the three General Laws on Migration (1950-2100) 

Although the level of openness of the country affects both the volume and the migratory composition, there are variables that must necessarily be taken into account when analyzing migratory patterns in Argentina. An example of these variables can be the profound political, economic and social problems that Argentina faced in the first case, as well as the favorable economic and financial scenario at the international level that gave impetus to the country’s recovery during the first decade of the current century, for the second of the cases. Finally, it should be noted that the sanction of Decree 70 of 2017 that modified the Migration Law (^{Law 25.871 of 2004}) implied a clear setback in the progress that the country had made in terms of openness and respect for the human rights of migrants. (^{Mussini, 2019}). Despite this, it is too early to assess the true impact that the sanction of this Decree of Necessity and Urgency (DNU by its initials in Spanish), as well as other administrative measures adopted by the country in recent years¹⁶, may have on the Argentinian migratory dynamics.

In principle, the sanction of the aforementioned DNU did not seem to bring about a reduction in the arrivals of migrants to the country, nor did other restrictive measures on migration adopted during that period. Despite this, these measures account for a wrong turn in the perspective of Argentinian migration policy in the face of the demographic challenges facing the country, where the most important challenge is to attract migrants and not find a way to expel them.

Evolution and Demographic Projection for Argentina

In the early 19th century, it is estimated that Argentina had only 600 000 inhabitants (^{Scobie, 1971}). However, during the following century, the imperative to populate the vast territory of the country, the eighth largest in the world, led the Argentinian government to promote policies of openness and encouragement of immigration that earned it an important reputation internationally and led the country to received, for a certain period of time, more immigrants than any other country in the New World (^{FitzGerald & Cook-Martín, 2014}).

The exponential economic and social transformations that Argentina experienced during the late 19th century and early 20th century, together with the migration promotion policies that accompanied this scenario, led to significant demographic growth that translated into an increase since 1869¹⁷ to nearly 20 million people in 1960. That is to say, in the words of ^{Cibotti (2004}), “in 90 years, the country had multiplied its initial population by 10, while, in the same period, the world population had multiplied by five” (p. 2).

Source: Own elaboration based on data from the Statistical Yearbook of the Argentinian Republic 2018 (^{INDEC, 2020}).

Graph 6 Evolution of the Argentinian Population, 1869-2020 

Immigration at that time (as reflected in previous sections) represented an important factor in sustaining and even increasing the Argentinian population. Just as the entry of migrants into the country in the mid-twentieth century fell sharply, the population growth rate also began to gradually decline. At the end of the 20th century, according to the data of ^{INDEC (2010)} for the 1980-1991 inter-census period, the country’s growth rate was approximately 1.47%, while for 1991-2001 it had fallen to 1.01%, experiencing subsequently a slight recovery in the inter- census period 2001-2010, registering a growth rate of 1.14%.

The projections indicate a drop again thereof for the next census rounds. This trend can be largely explained by the demographic transition process that, like other countries in the region, began in Argentina in the mid-twentieth century.

Demographic trends in Argentina present the country with important challenges to the extent that they can have a negative impact on aspects such as economic growth, the composition of the labor market, and migration, among others. Argentina is facing a complex scenario where various reports project that the country will suffer a progressive drop in the demographic growth rate that began in 2010 and that, if it continues, would arrive at the end of the century with a negative growth balance, that is, seeing its population reduce (Graph 7) (^{INDEC, 2020}; ^{CEPAL, 2020}).

In this sense, it is valid to mention that population aging is the product of the fall in the fertility rate and the increase in life expectancy which, in the case of Argentina, has been improving steadily for several decades. Likewise, and as a consequence of the fall in the fertility rate¹⁸, the base of the population pyramid has been eroding, just as the population of economically active age¹⁹. The latter entails negative repercussions in areas such as the economy, since it results in a decrease in the rate of economic growth in the country while leading to an increase in public spending in areas of care for people in a relationship of dependency and health.

Source: Own elaboration based on data from the Statistical Yearbook of the Argentinian Republic 2018 (^{INDEC, 2020}).

Graph 7 Demographic projections for Argentina (2010-2040) 

With everything said throughout this section, there is no doubt that the course of the Argentinian demographic structure will be framed in the one described by ^{Kenny (2019}) with respect to the countries of the Global North. For all of them, however, the arrival of thousands of migrants has postponed the reduction of their labor forces and slowed down the aging of their populations¹⁹ (^{Eberstadt, 2019}). For Argentina, the arrival of migrants, as well as the return of those who emigrated, can also become a political resource to be carefully explored.