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Geofísica internacional
versão On-line ISSN 2954-436Xversão impressa ISSN 0016-7169
Geofís. Intl vol.44 no.4 Ciudad de México Out./Dez. 2005
Articles
A probabilistic prediction of the next strong earthquake in the Acapulco-San Marcos segment, Mexico
1Institute of Geophysics, UNAM, Ciudad Universitaria, Mexico City, Mexico
Conditional probabilities for recurrence times of large earthquakes are a reasonable and valid form for estimating the likelihood of future large earthquakes. In this study we assume a gamma and a lognormal distribution for the recurrence time intervals of large earthquakes. The seismic process in the Acapulco-San Marcos fault-segment can be modelled as a renewal process, using a list of historical strong earthquakes (Ms≥7). For the gamma model, a highly damaging earthquake (Ms≥7) may occur approximately before August 2016 ± 5.14 (yrs). For the lognormal model, a highly damaging strong earthquake (Ms≥7) may occur aproximately before July 2016 ± 5.15 (yrs).
KEY WORDS: Earthquakes; probabilistic prediction; conditional density; gamma distribution; lognormal distribution; recurrence time; prediction error
El uso de las probabilidades condicionales de recurrencia representa una manera válida y razonable de estimar la posible ocurrencia de grandes sismos. En este trabajo suponemos la distribución gama y logarítmico normal para los intervalos de recurrencia de los temblores. El proceso sísmico en el segmento de Acapulco-San Marcos puede modelarse como un proceso de renovación usando un catálogo de grandes sismos (Ms≥7). Para el modelo gama, un sismo grande puede ocurrir antes de agosto de 2016 ± 5.14 años. Para el modelo logarítmico normal un sismo grande podrá ocurrir antes de julio de 2016 ± 5.15 años.
PALABRAS CLAVE: Sismos; predicción probabilística; densidad condicional; distribución gama; distribución logarítmico normal; tiempo de recurrencia; error de predicción
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Received: October 20, 2004; Accepted: April 29, 2005
This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License
