Abstract

GURROLA RIOS, Cesar  and  LOERA ALVAREZ, América. Evolution of commercial openness and country risk in Mexico. Investig. adm. [online]. 2018, vol.47, n.122. ISSN 2448-7678.

Empirical evidence, especially in emerging economies, suggests a direct relationship between the structural reforms adopted by governments, such as the reduction of barriers to international trade, and the crises that have spread through financial markets. The objective of the study is to analyze the dynamic relationships between the increase in trade with foreign countries, as an indicator of trade openness and country risk, in Mexico. Through a VAR methodology, the results reveal that both components of the trade balance impact on the EMBI although the imports with greater weight. Additionally, the results suggest that the EMBI shocks have negative effects on imports and exports, and the trade balance also responds in the Granger sense to the EMBI. The originality of the study lies in being one of the few attempts to analyze the relationship of both phenomena in Mexico. Among the potential limitations of the study is the lack of access to a greater number of longitudinal observations together with the presence of structural ruptures in the modeled series.

Keywords : Trade openness; country risk; VAR.

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