Abstract

DIAZ PEDROZA, Jesús; SANCHEZ VARGAS, Armando  and  MENDOZA GONZALEZ, Miguel Ángel. Convergencia hacia la economía regional líder en México. Un análisis de cointegración en panel. El trimestre econ [online]. 2009, vol.76, n.302, pp.407-431.  Epub Nov 20, 2020. ISSN 2448-718X.

The main objective of this paper is to provide empirical evidence regarding per capita income convergence of the states of the Mexican Republic towards the income of Distrito Federal, which is assumed to be the leading economy (Barro and Sala-i-Martin, 1991, 1992). We test such hypothesis by using two different panel unit root tests (Im, Pesaran and Shin, 1997; and Levin-Lin, 1993) and eight panel cointegration tests (Pedroni, 2001; Larsson, 2001). These econometric tools let overcome the “small sample distortions” of ten faced by studies based on time series techniques. Our unit root tests do not show evidence of absolute convergence towards the leading economy from 1970 to 2004 and for two shorter samples. However, cointegration tests show evidence in favor of conditional convergence for the same period. Long run estimates of the speed of convergence (Mark and Sul, 2003) show that rich regions converge faster than the poor ones.

Keywords : Convergencia; pruebas de raíces unitarias; pruebas de cointegración con datos de panel; mínimos cuadrados ordinarios dinámicos (DOLS).

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