Abstract

AGUILAR CHAPARRO, Diego Alberto. The stagnation of private investment in Mexico: an analysis of its determinants in the period 2005-2020. Trascender contab. gest. [online]. 2022, vol.7, n.20, pp.34-70.  Epub Nov 11, 2022. ISSN 2448-6388.  https://doi.org/10.36791/tcg.v8i20.161.

This article analyzes the determinants of the stagnation of private investment in Mexico in the period 2005-2020. Starting from an analysis of the macroeconomic context of the Mexican economy in the period, pointing out the episodes of economic crisis (such as the one in 2008-2009 and the one resulting from the health crisis), the main characteristics of investment performance and its effects are identified. results in economic growth. Based on this analysis, a VAR model with three lags is proposed that considers the relationships between private investment and public investment, GDP, savings, salary, interest rate, exchange rate, and a proxy variable for financialization. The general result of both analyzes is synthesized in that the stagnation of private investment is due to multiple fields associated with economic growth, such as: the withdrawal of public investment from total investment, the appreciation of the exchange rate, the increase in the rate. of interest, the feedback of the falls in investment with those of the product and the stagnation of the low wages that the majority of the population perceives.

Keywords : private investment; economic growth; economic policy; VAR models.

        · abstract in Spanish     · text in Spanish     · Spanish ( pdf )