Abstract

PENA MENA, Ricardo de la. The Polls in the Mexican Presidential Election, 2018. Rev. mex. opinión pública [online]. 2020, n.28, pp.117-145.  Epub Sep 07, 2020. ISSN 2448-4911.  https://doi.org/10.22201/fcpys.24484911e.2020.28.66376.

This essay intends to take stock of the performance of the presidential elections polls of 2018. In a first section, the relevant sources of information that account for the phenomenon are defined. In a second section the theoretical concepts are reviewed on how the accuracy of the electoral surveys should be measured. In a third section the defects of measurements that do not conform to the orthodox procedures of the field are discovered, with a view to deepen, in the following point, in the performance obtained by the polls on the occasion of the presidential elections of 2018, although leaving in a latter section some aspects that revealed still problematic aspects to explain. Finally, the performance achieved in this year is evaluated in comparison with that observed in other occasions.

Keywords : Mexico; president; polls; elections; accuracy; forecast.

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