Abstract

DEL TRONCO PAGANELLI, José; FLORES IVICH, Georgina  and  MADRIGAL RAMIREZ, Abby. The usefulness of surveys in predicting the vote. The second round of Argentina 2015. Rev. mex. opinión pública [online]. 2016, n.21, pp.73-92. ISSN 2448-4911.

¿Is it possible to predict who will win an electoral race? ¿Which is the usefulness of public opinion surveys for that goal? This article seeks to respond this questions through the estimation of electoral results of 2015 Argentinian´s Presidential Election based on the information provided by Latin-barometer 2015, an annual survey run at the beginning of the year, 9 months before the election. The quantitative analysis (logistic regression) shows that final electoral results, as much the first as the second round (where Mauricio Macri, the challenger, was finally and surprisingly elected), could be predicted with the public opinion data included in that survey.

Keywords : Public opinion; Argentina; voting prediction; second round.

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