Abstract

MENDOZA COTA, Jorge Eduardo. The Mexican-Chinese trade: Its importance for the economy of Mexico. Méx.cuenca pac [online]. 2015, vol.4, n.12, pp.65-91. ISSN 2007-5308.

Since the decade of the two thousands, the Mexican economy has shown an increasing share of Chinese exports within the total trade of Mexico. As a result, the economy of China exhibits the highest commercial surplus with Mexico. With the goal of estimating the effect of changes in Chinese and Mexican trade on the Mexican economy, an econometric model was established to estimate relations of causality, and a long run function was created, based on a fully modified ordinary least equation (FMOLS). The results showed the existence of co-integrating equations between the current account, the commercial deficit with China, the real GDP of Mexico and the peso/yuan exchange rate. The Granger test showed causality between the current account balance and the real GDP. Finally, the long run equation estimation exhibited a negative relationship with the balance of the current account and a positive relationship with the exchange rate.

Keywords : current account; trade deficit; exchange rate; chinese exports; manufactures; GDP.

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