Abstract

JURADO-NUNEZ, Alma  and  LEENEN, Iwin. Insights into guessing in multiple choice questions and its effect in the assessment outcome. Investigación educ. médica [online]. 2016, vol.5, n.17, pp.55-63. ISSN 2007-5057.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.riem.2015.07.004.

Multiple-choice tests (MCT) are the most employed assessment tool in medical education; however, its use is limited to the instrument reliability and validity of the inferences made upon the measurement. Guessing, an inherent element of this evaluating tool, may introduce construct-irrelevant variance and reduce the load of the latent trait in the score of the exam due to individual differences regarding educated guessing, testwiseness and guessing tendency. This article presents an overview of Classical Test Theory (CTT) and Item Response Theory (IRT), including a discussion of how each theory addresses the guessing phenomenon. With respect to the latter, we propose a theoretical model that integrates factors related to guessing within the CTT framework. We further include a theoretical analysis, which displays the variation of the probability of passing a MCT reliant on certain assumptions regarding guessing that are akin to a particular IRT model. In conclusion, various features of the items increase the likelihood of guessing, and, when guessing takes place, the magnitude of its effect is determined by some variables that can be dependent or independent of the latent trait.

Keywords : Multiple-choice tests; Guessing; Classical Test Theory; Item Response Theory; Mexico.

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