Abstract

LOPEZ-GARCIA, Thania G.; MANZANO, Mario G.  and  RAMIREZ, Aldo I.. Water availability under climate change scenarios in the Valle de Galeana, Nuevo León, Mexico. Tecnol. cienc. agua [online]. 2017, vol.8, n.1, pp.105-114. ISSN 2007-2422.  https://doi.org/10.24850/j-tyca-2017-01-08.

WEAP modeling was applied in order to identify the impact to water resources under CRP 4.5 and 8.5 climate change scenarios for the period of 2015-2030 in the Galeana Valley, Nuevo Leon, Mexico. Two adaptation conditions were set, the first one considers that the demand of water for cropping is reduced due to improvements in irrigation systems, the second condition addresses a comprehensive plan to ensure infiltration capacity on the recharging area of the local aquifer through enhancement of plant cover and soil recovery. Results show that the condition of the aquifer under climate change scenarios and traditional use of water is critical, because both scenarios would allow a complete abatement of the aquifer by the year 2015 with minimum recharge of about 0.96 and 1.5% during typical rainy months -August and September, respectively. When considering the first scenario a retrieval is expected from the year 2023 on, reaching a maximum recharge of 3.11 Mm3 in the rainy season. Although yield from the comprehensive plan do not allow a positive and constant aquifer recharge, it does show a recovering volume of 27 Mm3, thus representing 18.75% of the maximum system storage capacity; nevertheless, that volume slows down by the end of the year. Such behavior does not permit the development of local communities on the basis of the current highly-consuming water use practices.

Keywords : WEAP modeling program; RCP climate change scenarios; water resources; Mexican Plateau.

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