Abstract

FERNANDEZ-DURAN, Juan José  and  LLORET, Antonio. Water Use and Gross Domestic Product in the Lerma-Chapala Hydrographic Basin. Tecnol. cienc. agua [online]. 2016, vol.7, n.4, pp.129-138. ISSN 2007-2422.

The main objective of this article is to test the Kuznets inverted U-curve hypothesis in the relation between water consumption, for which agriculture and farming represent on average 75% of total consumption, and the GDP in municipalities located in the Lerma-Chapala hydrographic basin. Given the context of climate change, it is essential to understand the relationship between water consumption and GDP: the increased variability in the availability of water has forced governments and users to implement strategies for the efficient use of water resources, and thus they must consider not only likely environmental problems but also economic impact. Using data at the municipal level in a hydrographic basin, we consider the spatial effects among the different municipalities; these effects are modeled using spatial autoregressive models. The Kuznets inverted U-curve hypothesis is not rejected when allowing for spatially correlated errors. Thus, any strategy for mitigating climate change by making an efficient use of water resources must be evaluated in terms of its costs and benefits in the PIB of the municipality in relation to the fitted Kuznets curve presented in this article.

Keywords : Water use; climate change; spatial analysis; Kuznets's curve.

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