Abstract

REYES-OLVERA, Ana Laura  and  GUTIERREZ-GONZALEZ, Eduardo. Flood Risk Modeling for the State of Tabasco, 1961-2007. Tecnol. cienc. agua [online]. 2016, vol.7, n.2, pp.99-114. ISSN 2007-2422.

This paper proposes a flood risk indicator for hydrographic region 30 and a portion of 29, located in the state of Tabasco, Mexico. The indicator takes into account three factors: vulnerability, cost and hazards. Vulnerability measures the susceptibility of a region to flooding, which includes social and natural elements -that is, the services available to the population and the hydrological resources that pass through the region, respectively. In terms of cost, this takes into account the amount and type of damage from flooding, including the number of inhabitants and goods possessed by the population. The third factor, hazards, is based on annual maximum precipitations from 1961 to 2007, taken from the Maya v. 1.0 database, to calculate the probability of the occurrence of flooding and its return periods. For the hazards, a bootstrap goodness-of-fit test was proposed based on the sample correlation coefficient, using simulation to estimate the size and statistical power of the test. The distribution parameters were estimated according to maximum likelihood and the test verified that the observations fit the Gumbel distribution or generalized extreme values selected by the loglikelihood, AIC and correlation criteria.

Keywords : Risk index; vulnerability; cost and hazard; extreme value; bootstrap test; risk level map and return periods; principal components.

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