Abstract

CRUZ ESPINDOLA, Miguel Ángel; RODRIGUEZ TREJO, Dante Arturo; VILLANUEVA MORALES, Antonio  and  SANTILLAN PEREZ, Javier. Social factors of land use and vegetation related to forest fires in Hidalgo state. Rev. mex. de cienc. forestales [online]. 2017, vol.8, n.41, pp.139-163. ISSN 2007-1132.

The study of forest fires requires an integrated analysis of the territory, since fire is not generated by the action of an isolated factor, but is derived from the joint action of a group of factors. In Hidalgo State, the alteration of fire regimes is considered the third cause of forest loss and degradation, only after the change of forest land use and clandestine logging. In this work, the meteorological, productive, land use and social factors that best explained the occurrence of forest fires in the municipalities of the state during the period 2000-2011 were identified, based on the analysis of four loss variables and 73 explanatory. By logistic regression a probability model was constructed in which the significant variables were: forest area, Gross Domestic Product per capita, road length and disturbed area, all positively related to the probability of fire, except the last, with negative influence. Based on fire probability, an occurrence scale was established and mapped. There were 39 municipalities that were placed in a medium category and 10 in a high category. The variables in the model were closely linked to human activities, which evidenced the importance of considering the human factor in the fire risk assessment. The management of fire requires the understanding of the causes behind the ignitions.

Keywords : Fire risk; Fire forest fires; Fire Danger Index; integrated fire management; logistic regression; land use.

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