Abstract

FERNANDEZ GUERRERO, Vicente et al. Change in real gross income and risk in Mexican agriculture period 1980-1999 versus 2000-2019. Rev. Mex. Cienc. Agríc [online]. 2022, vol.13, n.7, pp.1323-1331.  Epub Nov 22, 2022. ISSN 2007-0934.  https://doi.org/10.29312/remexca.v13i7.2688.

Mexico has experienced adjustments in its agricultural structure induced by changes in economic policy; the most recent and relevant was carried out during the period 1980-2019. The transition from a closed to an open economy produced an unprecedented change in the productive structure that persists today. This work aimed to measure and compare the variation of real gross income and risk of the main agricultural export products, through the following financial instruments: continuous growth rates, normal distribution, critical values and investment portfolios. This analysis was carried out in two periods called closed economy (1980-1999) and open economy (2000-2019). Selected agricultural products were analyzed individually and grouped: berries, green vegetables, fruits and vegetables. The results show that the risks were lower in the period of open economy for all the products studied and in most of them, the growth rates were positive, which indicates that their real incomes registered an increasing trend. The analysis by group of products in the open economy period showed that berries and vegetables are the ones with the best growth rates with the lowest level of risk compared to the closed economy period. The odds of real incomes decreasing in the open economy decreased, so it is more advisable to invest in both groups of agricultural products in this economic environment compared to the closed economy period.

Keywords : critical values; growth rates; investment portfolios.

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