Abstract

RUIZ-CORRAL, José Ariel et al. Impact of climate change on the growing season in the state of Jalisco, Mexico. Rev. Mex. Cienc. Agríc [online]. 2016, vol.7, n.spe13, pp.2627-2638. ISSN 2007-0934.

The objective of this study was to evaluate the impact that climate change will have this century over the growing season (EC) in the state of Jalisco, Mexico. To this end, EC was determined from 134 meteorological stations from the state with probability values of rainfall and the average value of ETP estimated with the Penman- Monteith method through ETo Calculator program. These measurements were used to model the parameters of EC for the periods 2041-2060 (average year 2050) Rcp 4.5, 2061-2080 (average year 2070) Rcp 4.5, and from 1961 to 2010 (reference climatology). As input for the 2050 and 2070 climatology, the average monthly precipitation and average temperature derived from the implementation of a model that includes the assembly of 11 global circulation models (GCMs) were used. The results showed that in the state of Jalisco there are inter-regional differences for the initial date, end date and duration of the growing season. Furthermore climate change will make reduce the duration of the growing season (DEC) between -1 and -21 days by 2050 and between -1 and -35 days by 2070, regarding DEC from reference climatology. This reduction in DEC is mainly due to climate change will cause a delay in the onset of rains (beginning of growing season, IEC) and to a lesser extent the rainy season will emend earlier (completion of the growing season FEC). These unfavorable scenarios projected for the growing season in Jalisco, show the need to develop strategies that allow reducing the impact of climate change on state agricultural production systems.

Keywords : global warming; growing stage; impact of climate change.

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