Abstract

RAMIREZ-OJEDA, Gabriela et al. Impact of climate change on the geographic distribution of Gossypium hirsutum L. in Mexico. Rev. Mex. Cienc. Agríc [online]. 2014, vol.5, n.spe10, pp.1885-1895. ISSN 2007-0934.

Climate change due to global warming is expected to have important effects on plant genetic resources, which has significant implications for agriculture, since it is assumed that these resources have genes that can provide features related hardiness "for most extreme weather conditions. The present study aimed to estimate the effect of climate change on the geographic distribution of Gossypium hirsutum in Mexico. The passport data of 387 accessions conducted between 1980 and 2011 by nine national and international institutions were used. Potential distribution of G. hirsutum was simulated, reference climatology for 1961-1990 and 2040-2069 climate change scenario using the model Maxent. Climate information was obtained from the portal WorldClim Earth System Grid where ASCII type images are downloaded with a spatial resolution of 2.5 minutes. For the 2040-2069 climate change scenario three general circulation models (MCG) were considered ECHAM5, MIROC (Medres) and UKMO_HADCM3 low emission scenario of greenhouse gases A2 in ASCII format with spatial resolution of 2.5 min. Both climatologies were worked to Idrisi selva software. The modelling results show that in the three MGG, the distribution G. hirsutum L. will be favoured by climate change, greatly increasing the areas in which it now appears.

Keywords : Gossypium hirsutum L.; climate change; geographical distribution; plant genetic resources.

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