Abstract

MORA OROZCO, Celia de la; FLORES LOPEZ, Hugo Ernesto; DURAN CHAVEZ, Álvaro  and  RUIZ CORRAL, José Ariel. Climate change and the impact on the concentration of dissolved oxygen in Lake Chapala. Rev. Mex. Cienc. Agríc [online]. 2011, vol.2, n.spe2, pp.381-394. ISSN 2007-0934.

The aim of this study was to estimate the effects of climate change in the first half of the 21^st century, in the concentrations of dissolved oxygen of Lake Chapala. For this, the model suggested by Thomas and Muller was used, including variables related to altitude, reaeration rate coefficient, photosynthesis and respiration. The simulation of the model contributed to the understanding of the impact of temperature changes as a result of climate change in dissolved oxygen concentrations in Lake Chapala. Two decades were modeled: 2031-2040 and 2051-2060 and 1961-2003 baseline scenario. The model was calibrated using data from 1996-1997 of dissolved oxygen, measured at Lake Chapala. The model showed a good performance in the dissolved oxygen estimation, reporting a minimum concentration of dissolved oxygen 6.13 mg L-¹ in May in the decade from 2051 to 2060, and a maximum of 8.06 mg L-¹ in the month of December 1961 -2003. The spatial distribution of dissolved oxygen in the lake showed homogeneity, mainly in May 1961 to 2003. In 2031-2040 and 2051-2060 the spatial distribution of dissolved oxygen will be influenced by the gradient of temperature and circulation patterns of the lake. It's conclude that, a decrease in the concentration of dissolved oxygen is expected as an effect of an increased temperature; however, the results of the simulation do not predict anoxic conditions for the modeled decades, therefore, a risk to the aquatic life in the lake is not considered. It is recommended that, for future simulations of dissolved oxygen in Lake Chapala, to incorporate variables to the model such as solar radiation, wind speed and direction, considering them as dynamic, to improve the model's performance.

Keywords : climate change; dissolved oxygen; Lake Chapala; temperature increase.

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