Abstract

TAPIA VARGAS, Luis Mario et al. Climatic change in the avocado-producing area of Michoacán: long-term precipitation and temperature analysis. Rev. Mex. Cienc. Agríc [online]. 2011, vol.2, n.spe2, pp.325-335. ISSN 2007-0934.

Currently, in Michoacán's avocado-producing area, an increase in temperature and erratic rainstorms are perceived. The aim of this paper was to evaluate the precipitation and temperature conditions from a baseline of 1963 to 1972 and to compare them with the current situation of 2001-2010. Temperature's (minimum and maximum) and precipitation's data were used from the 01-01-1963 to 31-12-2010 series, of the Barranca del Cupatitzio's weather station of the Uruapan Experimental Field of the National Research Institute for Agriculture, Forestry and Livestock (INIFAP). The 01-01-1963--31-12-1972 baseline was compared with the period 01-01-2001--31-12-2010. Temperature changes were evaluated using regression models and their analysis of covariance. The precipitation of May-November was assessed by Xi² for averages of monthly sum of: 1) maximum number of consecutive days with precipitation and water quantity (R_MAX); 2) maximum number of consecutive dry days and total days without rain (M_SEC); 3) number and quantity of days with precipitation (R_MED); and 4) days and water quantity with precipitation intervals 0-10, 20-30 and >30 mm (R_INT). These results indicated no significance for maximum and minimum temperatures with 24.1 and 9.3 °C (1963-1972) versus 24.4 and 9.8 °C (2001-2010) (t₍₁₈,₀₅)< 2.9). R_MAX was not significant (Xi_c²= 0.04< X_it²_(1,05)= 3.85), just as M_SEC. R_MED was significant (Xi_c²₍₁, ₀₅₎= 4.2*) with 105 actual days and 1 513 mm for 1963-1972 against 96 and 1858 mm in 2001-2010. R_INT was highly significant (Xi_c²₍₂,₀₁₎= 95.4**) with 1 003.2 mm of rainfall> 30 mm in 2001-2010 against 573 mm in 1963-1972. It's concluded that, the presence of climate change is evident in the studied region even if it is not manifested in all the climatic parameters.

Keywords : climate change; rain; deforestation; runoff.

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