Abstract

CERON MONROY, Hazael  and  SILVA URRUTIA, José Eliud. The relationship between a proxy of the dynamics of public insecurity and international tourism to Mexico: an econometric analysis. El periplo sustentable [online]. 2017, n.33, pp.105-131. ISSN 1870-9036.

According with official statistics on tourism, there was outstanding activity for Mexico in 2015. This can be seen in the number of international tourists and the amounts spent. In fact, Mexico achieved the 9th worldwide position in international tourism. However Mexican tourism sector considers that insecurity affects the development of international travel. In this paper, the Granger causality test is applied to understand the sense of the relationship: tourism vs insecurity. We also estimate a VAR model and then applied the impulse response tool, in order to know the periodicity of the effect of the insecurity. As a proxy of the insecurity indicator we employ the number of homicides in Mexico. Although the Granger causality test is not conclusive in all the analyzed periods of time, through the impulse response analysis, we found that any statistical perturbation in the homicides produces a negative and significant effect over the time series of the number of international tourism. Insecurity is a global problem, nevertheless in Mexico its behavior has a delayed effect, which may not be detected at the time but some months later.

Keywords : International tourism; Homicides; Granger causality; VAR model; Insecurity.

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