Objective:

To estimate the size and the dynamics of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic in Advanced, Emerging, and Developing Economies, and to determine its implications for economic growth.

Methodology:

A susceptible Infected Recovered (SIR) model is implemented, we calculate the size of the pandemic through numerical integration and phase diagrams for COVID-19 trajectory; finally, we use ensemble models (random forest) to forecast economic growth.

Results:

We confirm that there are differences in pandemic spread and size among countries; likewise, the trajectories show a long-term spiral cycle. Economic recovery is expected to be slow and gradual for most of the economies.

Limitations:

All countries differ in COVID-19 test applications, which could lead to inaccurate total confirmed cases and an imprecise estimate of the pandemic’s spread and size. In addition, there is a lack of leading indicators in some countries, generating a higher MSE of some machine learning models.

Originality:

To implement economic-epidemiological models to analyze the evolution and virus’ spreading throughout time.

Conclusions:

It is found the pandemic’s final size to be between 74-77%. Likewise, it is demonstrated that COVID-19 is endemic, with a constant prevalence of 9 years on average. The spread of the pandemic has caused countries to self-induce in an unprecedented recession with a slow recovery.

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