Abstract

ROMERO, José. Evolución de la demanda mexicana de importaciones: 1940-2009. EconoQuantum [online]. 2012, vol.9, n.1, pp.7-34. ISSN 2007-9869.

The purpose of this paper is to specify and estimate an aggregate import demand function for Mexico, and to discuss the implications of the results. Estimation is based on quarterly data for real imports, real GDP and relative prices over the period 1940-2009. In our empirical analysis, we use cointegration and error correction techniques. We found that a structural change occurs after 1982, so we estimated two demand functions, one for 1962q1-1982q4 and the other for 1988q1-2009q4. Our econometric estimates of the aggregate import demand function for Mexico suggest that import demand in the second period was overwhelmingly dominated by GDP and the price elasticity of demand declined from the one observed in the first period. The results indicate that the fiscal and exchange rate policies became ineffective instruments to regulate the business cycle.

Keywords : México; importaciones; propensión a importar; política fiscal; política cambiaria.

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