Abstract

CEDILLO-MARTINEZ, Marly  and  MARTINEZ-DAMIAN, Miguel Á.. Influence of the North American Economy on Exports and Economic Growth in Mexico. agric. soc. desarro [online]. 2018, vol.15, n.3, pp.295-309. ISSN 1870-5472.

One of the most notable transformations of Mexican economy arose with the signing of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), which sought to foster exports to promote the growth of the domestic economy and its productive sectors. After almost 20 years since its implementation, there is still no convincing evidence that confirms this premise, which is why this study attempts to examine whether the behavior of exports sent to the United States has an influence on the economic growth in Mexico and if this behavior is connected to random disturbances of the United States economy. For this purpose, the methodology used was decomposition of non-observable components of time series and, in particular, the application of the Hodrick-Prescott Filter. The results show that the exports are related to the Mexican GDP and, therefore, the impact that they generate is significant. Concerning the behavior of exports, it remains almost unchangeable in face of changes in the US economy.

Keywords : randomness; components; filter; disturbance; series.

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