Abstract

HERNANDEZ VALDEZ, Alfonso. Efectos, errores y regulación de las encuestas preelectorales: una política de transparencia para el caso mexicano. CONfines relacion. internaci. ciencia política [online]. 2013, vol.9, n.18, pp.59-85. ISSN 1870-3569.

The Mexican presidential election of 2012 originated a debate on the effects of polls on the electorate and the regulation that should apply to them because of their errors. In this article we show that opinion surveys have little influence on voting decisions, and the errors we often observe in poll results are relatively common. An argument is made in terms of a limited regulation of opinion polls with the goal of minimizing the risk of having false information in the public sphere. Although we find measures of this sort in Mexico, a transparency policy could facilitate the achievement of such a goal, with electoral authorities having a monitoring role and survey companies having an obligation to give public access to data and documents coming from pre-electoral polls.

Keywords : elections; pre-electoral polls; poll regulation; electoral transparency; right to vote.

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