Abstract

REYES GUZMAN, Gerardo; ESCOBAR ACEVEDO, Marco Antonio  and  ROSTRO HERNANDEZ, Perla Esperanza. Mexico: Remittances, Organized Crime and U.S. Drug Overdose Crisis in Borderlands (2015-2021). Norteamérica [online]. 2023, vol.18, n.1, pp.191-215.  Epub Jan 12, 2024. ISSN 2448-7228.  https://doi.org/10.22201/cisan.24487228e.2023.1.602.

The present article aims to shed light on the question of whether Mexico’s boom in remittances between 2015 and 2021 was the result of low rates of unemployment in the United States or higher revenue from drug trafficking by Mexican criminal groups. We found that Mexican migration to the United States took off in 2019 and accelerated with the COVID-19 pandemic. Since higher rates of unemployment coincided with increased remittances and a spike in drug overdose deaths in the United States, a hypothesis arose that Mexican remittances could be related to drug trafficking revenue. An exploratory data analysis (EDA) found a normal negative correlation (not causation) between the U.S. unemployment rate and remittances from 2015 to 2019, but an abnormal negative correlation from 2020 to 2021. We therefore conclude that the record level in Mexican remittances between 2020 and 2021 could be the result of an increase in Mexican migration but also from a windfall in drug trafficking earnings mirrored by a spike in drug overdose deaths in the United States.

Keywords : remittances; Mexican criminal organizations; borderlands; U.S. drug overdose deaths.

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