Abstract

QUIROZ FELIX, Jorge; CASTILLO PONCE, Ramón Amadeo; OCEGUEDA HERNANDEZ, Juan Manuel  and  VARELA LLAMAS, Rogelio. Criminal and Economic Activity in Mexico. Norteamérica [online]. 2015, vol.10, n.2, pp.187-209. ISSN 2448-7228.

This article examines the relationship between acts of violence or criminal activity and economic activity in Mexico, using an econometric time series. With estimates of co-integration and common cycle equations, it assesses whether the series share a trend and if they respond similarly to transitory shocks. The results indicate that over the long term, economic activity co-integrates with three measures for insecurity: homicides, kidnappings, and robberies. The relationship among them is negative: hikes in criminal activity are associated with drops in the dynamism of the economy. For the short term, evidence exists of a common cycle between economic activity and robbery, but not for homicides and kidnappings.

Keywords : Homicides; kidnappings; robberies; economic activity; co-integration; common cycle.

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