Abstract

PONCE, Aldo F.; MENA-MORA, Amalia  and  ROTTINGHAUS, Brandon. The Role of Risk Propensity in Shaping Voting Behavior: The Case of the 2000 Mexican Election. Polít. gob [online]. 2012, vol.19, n.1, pp.71-99. ISSN 1665-2037.

Previous important studies examine the role of "risk" propensity in shaping vote choices in Mexico. However, none of these studies determine the degree to which short and long term factors influence a traditionally risk averse respondent's enthusiasm to vote for an opposition party. Using data from the 2000 election, a campaign where risk played a significant role, we evaluate whether various effects mitigate the role of risk in voting for an opposition candidate. We find that risk propensity has a deterministic impact on vote choice and no amount of campaign effects (short term) or negative image of the PRI (long term) mitigated that role. Yet, we uniquely show that this deterministic impact can vary over the campaign period and across the electoral alternatives.

Keywords : Mexico; risk propensity; Mexican elections; democratization; PRI.

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