Abstract

ARGOTE-CUSI, Milenka Linneth. The use of fuzzy logic in population projections: the case of Mexico. Pap. poblac [online]. 2018, vol.24, n.95, pp.273-301. ISSN 2448-7147.  https://doi.org/10.22185/24487147.2018.95.11.

The main topic of this research is the new methods to improve the accuracy of population estimations. Considering fuzzy logic theory trough membership function, we project Mexican population, phenomenon who has no lineal dynamic. Population series from census and counts between 1895 and 2010 was used join definitions and theorems of fuzzy time series developed by Zadeh (1965); in this case was apply fuzzy time series invariant in time. Fuzzy times series forecasting achieves to model no lineal behavior of population with few data and we see that the error of these new estimations is smaller than simple linear regression.

Keywords : Fuzzy logic population projection; Fuzzy Time Series for forecasting; Accuracy Estimates Analysis.

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