Abstract

HERNANDEZ VELEROS, Zeus Salvador  and  SERRANO AVILES, Tomás. Stationarity, breaks and trends of the international migration of Mexico: causes and consequences. Pap. poblac [online]. 2018, vol.24, n.95, pp.115-151. ISSN 2448-7147.  https://doi.org/10.22185/24487147.2018.95.06.

In the paper we analyze the data generation process of the time series of international migrations for Mexico by sex during the period 1960-2010, under the consideration of stationarity with breaks and the definition of a long term relationship between female net migration and male net migration; with the aim to define the break date, the confidence intervals of them, the possible facts related with the breaks. We employ stationarity panel test and a ARDL model, and else some consequences of these facts are mentioned; we forecast the different international flows under the assumption of no new breaks, other forecasts considers a dynamics with changes in trends, other projections have a root in demographic stocks, economic growth, inmigration enforcement and insecurity problems.

Keywords : Migration; stationarity; breaks; ARDL.

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