Abstract

AZUZ ADEATH, Isaac  and  RIVERA ARRIAGA, Evelia. Population growth estimation for the coastal states of Mexico. Pap. poblac [online]. 2007, vol.13, n.51, pp.187-211. ISSN 2448-7147.

This paper shows the results obtained with a theoretical population growth model (sigmoidal boltziano), developed using the census information for each Mexican coastal state (during the period 1930-2000). The model was validated and calibrated using the population counting (2005). The annual population growth forecast comprises the period between 2006 and 2030. For year 2030, a total of 58.8 million people was predicted. With the population counting data of 2005 the sigmoidal model was corrected and a decadal forecast until 2050 was obtained. For the reference year (2050), the total population for the Mexican coastal zone will be 64.2 million people.

Keywords : population growth; population growth estimation; coastal state; Mexico.

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