Abstract

BRAMBILA-PAZ, José de J.; MARTINEZ-DAMIAN, Miguel Á.; ROJAS-ROJAS, María M.  and  PEREZ-CERECEDO, Verónica. Real options, biorefineries and bioeconomy: The case of bioethanol and sugar. Agrociencia [online]. 2013, vol.47, n.3, pp.281-292. ISSN 2521-9766.

Bioeconomy products that employ first-generation raw material face an unstable relative price scenario between the generic and the differential product. This is the case between sugar and ethanol prices, both obtained from sugarcane (Saccharum officinarum). The aim of this study was to assess whether a multipurpose project that produces sugar and bioethanol has the probability that over time capital is worth more than if it had been deposited in the bank (capital opportunity cost) compared with a single-purpose project (sugar or bioethanol production alone). The Bellman equation, Brownian motion and Ito's lemma are used in the determination of critical values and the Black-Scholes and Merton equations for the real options estimation. The analysis of the results shows that a multipurpose project (1.95) is preferable to a project single-purpose (sugar: 2.19; bioethanol: 1.99) in unstable price scenarios because the critical value is lowest. When confronting the real option of producing sugar to bioethanol or vice versa, the real option value of the project increases by $6 million dollars. It is concluded that a bio-refinery that uses first-generation raw material such as sugarcane must be flexible to change the amounts of its production, whether sugar to bioethanol or vice versa.

Keywords : bioethanol; multipurpose; critical value and bio; based economy.

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