Abstract

ARCE-ROMERO, Antonio Rafael; MONTERROSO-RIVAS, Alejandro Ismael; GOMEZ-DIAZ, Jesús David  and  CRUZ-LEON, Artemio. Mexican plums (Spondias spp.): their current distribution and potential distribution under climate change scenarios for Mexico. Rev. Chapingo Ser.Hortic [online]. 2017, vol.23, n.1, pp.5-20. ISSN 2007-4034.  https://doi.org/10.5154/r.rchsh.2016.06.020.

Plums (Spondias spp.) are species native to Mexico with adaptive, nutritional and ethnobotanical advantages. The aim of this study was to assess the current and potential distribution of two species of Mexican plum: Spondias purpurea L. and Spondias mombin L. The method applied was ecological niche modeling in Maxent software, which has been used in Mexico with good results. In fieldwork, information on the presence of these species in the country was collected. In addition, environmental variables of biogeographic importance, all with nationwide coverage, were generated. The climate change scenario applied was for the horizon 2075-2099, considering the GFDL_CM3, HADGEM2_ES, and Ensamble REA models, all under RCP 8.5 W∙m-2 scenarios. Distribution models were validated by four concordance indices. The most important environmental factors for modeling Spondias spp. were thermal oscillation, low temperatures and precipitation in some months of the year. In the reference scenario, suitability for plums was found in 3.8 and 6.6 % of the country for S. purpurea and S. mombin, respectively. With climate change scenarios at the national level, S. mombin recorded a 13.3 % decrease in suitability growing areas, while S. purpurea recorded a 5.7 % drop.

Keywords : Spondias mombin; Spondias purpurea; ecological niche; potential distribution.

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