Abstract

BEKERMAN, Marta; DULCICH, Federico  and  VAZQUEZ, Darío. External Constraints on Growth in Argentina: The Role of Industrial Manufactured Goods. Prob. Des [online]. 2015, vol.46, n.183, pp.59-88. ISSN 0301-7036.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rpd.2015.10.004.

Recent tensions in the current accounts of Argentina have reopened the debate regarding external constraints on growth (ECG). In 2003-2013, export growth was slightly lower than it was during the convertibility era, but a major decline in the income elasticity of import demand mitigated the ECG. However, the effective growth rate was higher than that imposed by the ECG, according to Thirlwall's law, which led to the deterioration of the trade balance and growth. This was due to the trade deficit in manufactured goods of industrial origin (MIO), in light of technology dependence in capital goods and inputs. This paper analyzes the evolution of ECGs in Argentina at both the global and sector level, aiming to determine which MIO sectors had the greatest impact.

Keywords : Argentina; manufacturing industry; external sector; foreign trade; structural change.

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