Abstract

OCEGUEDA, Juan Manuel; ESCAMILLA, Antonio  and  MUNGARAY, Alejandro. Economic structure and the growth rate on Mexico's northern border. Prob. Des [online]. 2011, vol.42, n.164, pp.71-97. ISSN 0301-7036.

This study analyzes the economic structure of Mexico's northern-border states, characterized by their high concentration in a limited group of export manufacturing industries and by their highly volatile growth rates, given the fluctuations of the world economy. Applying the method used by Sieguel et al (1995), which links input-output models to portfolio theory, using the variance of regional production as a proxy for the variability associated with a productive structure, we show that between 1993 and 2006 the volatility of the growth rate increased along the northern border. Using the criterion of minimizing the variance of production, it proposes a method to select sectors that could contribute to resolving this problem and to defining a sector-specific production structure consistent with a stable growth rate.

Keywords : Economic structure; input-output analysis; R110 regional development.

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