Abstract

BADILLO-RIVERA, Edwin et al. Analysis of Environmental and Social Variables as Risk Factors in the Spread of the New Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2): A Case Study in Peru. Invest. Geog [online]. 2021, n.104, e60187.  Epub Sep 20, 2021. ISSN 2448-7279.  https://doi.org/10.14350/rig.60187.

The new coronavirus disease (COVID-19) caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus originated in China; the first case was reported in the city of Wuhan in December 2019, from where the virus spread to other regions of China and the rest of the world. The World Health Organization (WHO) declared the COVID-19 outbreak as an international public health emergency on January 30, 2020. The first positive case of COVID-19 in Peru was recorded on March 6, 2020 in the Lima region; the state of emergency was declared on March 16, 2020. Several studies worldwide have examined environmental and social variables associated with the spread of COVID-19. Most of these studies have analyzed individual variables; therefore, an analysis integrating these variables under clear methodological criteria is warranted. The objective of this article is to analyze a number of environmental (tropospheric NO2 column, vertical air flow, percentage of solid waste disposed of in open dumps, and percentage of the population with no access to basic sanitation services) and social (monetary poverty level, number of hospitals, and vulnerable population) variables directly or indirectly involved in the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. Remote sensing techniques and geographic information systems (GIS), integrated under the multiparametric statistical-deterministic approach proposed by Saaty, were used to identify the regions of Peru that show the greatest susceptibility, vulnerability, and risk of spread of the SARSCoV-2 virus. Data were compiled from global and national institutions. Data for the tropospheric NO2 column were obtained from the Sentinel-5 Precursor satellite; vertical air flow was estimated from data collected by the Physical Science Laboratory of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA); data on the population with no access to basic sanitation services were obtained from the national statistical agency, the Instituto Nacional de Estadística e Informática (INEI), and on the percentage of solid waste disposed of in open dumps from the Ministry of the Environment (MINAM). Data on social variables were obtained from INEI. The prevalence of high tropospheric NO2 values and vertical air flow values close to 0 Pa/s is directly related to the number of positive COVID-19 cases. In addition, 68% of the regions show a high or very high risk of spread of the SARS-CoV2 virus and most of these (Callao, Tumbes, Piura, Loreto, Lambayeque, Huancavelica, Amazonas, Cajamarca, Ucayali, and Huánuco, among others) are located in north and central areas of Peru. Thus, special care should be taken after the social isolation period to prevent a new outbreak and the collapse of healthcare systems. We concluded that public policies aimed at improving air quality management, integrated solid waste management, and sanitation services in the short term should be applied to reduce the risk of spreading the SARS-CoV-2 virus. This study could be replicated at a larger scale, including additional variables.

Keywords : SARS-CoV-2; Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP); Risk Assessment; Remote Sensing; GIS.

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