Abstract

PINEDA JAIMES, Noel Bonfilio; BOSQUE SENDRA, Joaquín; GOMEZ DELGADO, Montserrat  and  PLATA ROCHA, Wenceslao. Analysis of land use changes in the State of Mexico using regression analysis and GIS: an approach to the deforestation processes. Invest. Geog [online]. 2009, n.69, pp.33-52. ISSN 2448-7279.

This paper describes land use change in the State of Mexico during the period 1993-2002. Changes, interchanges and systematic transitions affecting forest loss were calculated. Multivariant analysis was performed to explain the possible causes that are leading to this regional deforestation process. A detailed description demonstrates that categories of forest have low net changes, however interchange values were high. Systematic transitions between categories de monstrate a strong forest disturbance-recovery dynamics. Models of multiple linear regressions indicate that forest loss is heavily influenced by demographic factors at municipal units. Logistic regression models applied at a pixel level explain that the greatest loss happens in forested areas next to agricultural land use; additionally it was found that those areas with high ecological fragility are those presenting the largest susceptibility to be deforested.

Keywords : Land use change; GIS; multivariant analysis; deforestation; State of Mexico.

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