Abstract

SANTILLAN-SALGADO, Roberto J.; ESCOBAR-SALDIVAR, Luis Jacob  and  LOPEZ-HERRERA, Francisco. Optimal Hedge Ratios for the Mexican Stock Market Index Futures Contract: A Multivariate GARCH Approach. Econ: teor. práct [online]. 2020, n.53, pp.201-237.  Epub Nov 12, 2020. ISSN 2448-7481.  https://doi.org/10.24275/etypuam/ne/532020/santillan.

This paper compares the performance of different hedging strategies using futures contracts on Mexico’s Stock Exchange Index (IPC), traded in the Mexican Derivatives Market (MexDer). The ex-post evaluation of each strategy is made with daily closing prices from December 30th, 1999, through December 30th, 2016. The strategies considered are a) a No-hedge; b) a Naive Hedge; c) Constant Hedge; and d) a Dynamic Hedge, using a Constant Conditional Correlation Asymmetric Bivariate GARCH model. Four structural breaks are identified during the sample period, suggesting a five subperiods analysis. The strategies are compared using different risk measures: a) Value at Risk; b) Expected Shortfall; and c) LAQ. In all cases, hedging strategies reduce the volatility of the portfolio relative to the no-hedge strategy, but the dynamic hedge ratio produces the best results.

Keywords : Futures contracts; hedging strategies; emerging derivatives markets; G11; G13.

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