Abstract

MATEOS, VIDAL L.; GARCIA, JOSE A.; SERRANO, ANTONIO  and  DE LA CRUZ GALLEGO, MARIA. Transfer function modeling of the monthly accumulated rainfall series over the Iberian Peninsula. Atmósfera [online]. 2002, vol.15, n.4, pp.237-256. ISSN 0187-6236.

In order to improve the results given by Autoregressive Moving-Average (ARMA) modeling for the monthly accumulated rainfall series taken at 19 observatories of the Iberian Peninsula, a Discrete Linear Transfer Function Noise (DLTFN) model was applied taking the local pressure series (LP), North Atlantic sea level pressure series (SLP)and North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) as input variables, and the rainfall series as the output series. In all cases, the performance of the DLTFN models, measured by the explained variance of the rainfall series, is better than the performance given by the ARMA modeling. The best performance is given by the models which take the local pressure as the input variable, followed by the sea level pressure models and the sea surface temperature models. Geographically speaking, the models fitted to those observatories located in the west of the Iberian Peninsula work better than those on the north and east of the Peninsula. Also, it was found that there is a region located between 0°N and 20°N, which shows the highest cross-correlation between SST and the peninsula rainfalls. This region moves to the west and northwest off the Peninsula when the SLP series are used.

Keywords : Autoregressive - Moving Average; Discrete Linear Transfer Function Noise; Rainfall Modeling.

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