Abstract

CRUZ MEDINA, Isidro Roberto  and  GARCIA PAEZ, Fernando. Runoff Modeling of the Yaqui River. Terra Latinoam [online]. 2008, vol.26, n.2, pp.145-152. ISSN 2395-8030.

Fresh water is one of the limiting factors for extensive agriculture in arid regions of northwestern Mexico. Runoff volume estimation is very important to calculate water availability for municipal, industrial, and agricultural use. Sustainable decisions on the volume of water to be extracted from the reservoirs require prediction of runoff. The objective of this paper was to obtain a prediction model for runoff. The annual runoff of the Yaqui River in the State of Sonora, Mexico, was modeled with various "black box" methods. Some of these models characterize the dependence of the runoff time series, but others assume that the runoff series is independent. Dynamic regression models were used to include the possible effect of the surface water warming phenomenon in the central Pacific Ocean known as the "El Niño Southern Oscillation" (ENSO). It is concluded that dynamic regression, with auxiliary variables that characterize the ENSO event, was not significant, the annual runoff time series can be considered independent and a non-parametric probability distribution with a Gaussian window was chosen.

Keywords : nonparametric distribution; dynamic regression; ENSO.

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