Abstract

CORONA, Francisco  and  LOPEZ-PEREZ, Jesús. An econometric assessment of the official historical estimates for the state-level economic activity indicators of Mexico. Estud. Econ. (México, D.F.) [online]. 2020, vol.35, n.2, pp.193-212.  Epub Oct 21, 2020. ISSN 0186-7202.  https://doi.org/10.24201/ee.v35i2.401.

This paper shows an econometric assessment of the Quarterly Indicator of Economic Activity (ITAEE) retropolation until 1980. The results obtained are then compared empirically with alternative retropolation procedures that uses nominal state-level Gross Domestic Product (GDP) as temporal restrictions as the works of German-Soto (2005) and for an alternative of Guerrero and Corona (2018b), where they incorporate GDP nominal information as temporal restrictions. We conclude that the ITAEE's retropolation until 1980 carried out in this work has a solid econometric background and better structural performance with respect to other approaches considered in the current investigation.

Keywords : State GDP; combination rule; restricted forecast; Mexico national system accounts; C01; C53; E27.

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