Abstract

MEJIA REYES, Pablo; REYES HERNANDEZ, Marlen R.  and  RENDON ROJAS, Liliana. Is there any evidence of political-business cycle in the sectorial employment of Mexico, 1998-2013?. Contad. Adm [online]. 2017, vol.62, n.1, pp.25-43. ISSN 0186-1042.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cya.2016.07.004.

This paper looks for evidence of political-business cycles associated to the presidential elections in the Mexican sectorial employment over the period 1998-2013. By estimating panel data models, and controlling for the effects of the major determinants of employment, no evidence consistent with the predictions of the theoretical opportunistic model is found, i.e. whereas employment shows an expansion before and during the elections periods, the estimates are neither statistically significant nor robust. Furthermore, employment does not experience contractions after the elections or the office taking periods. Notwithstanding, the evidence suggests that employment is positively and negatively affected by output and real wages, respectively.

Keywords : Political business cycle; Employment; Wages; Production; D72; E32; E24; E61.

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