Abstract

GUTIERREZ, Raúl de Jesús  and  ORTIZ, Edgar. The effect of volatility in the mexican peso performance and risk of the Mexican Stock Exchange. Contad. Adm [online]. 2013, vol.58, n.3, pp.89-119. ISSN 0186-1042.

The effect of heavy tails due to rare events and different levels of asymmetry associated with high volatility clustering in the emerging financial markets requires sophisticated models for statistical modelling of such stylized facts. This article applies extreme value theory (EVT) to quantify tail risk on the daily returns of Mexican stock market under aggregation of foreign exchange rate risk from January 1971 to December 2010. This study focuses on the maximum-block method and generalized extreme value distribution (GEVD) to model the asymptotic behavior of extreme returns in US dollars. The empirical results show that EVT-Based VaR measured at high confidence levels performs better than simulation historical and delta-normal VaR models on capturing fat-tails in the returns of highly volatile stock markets. Additionally, international investors holding long positions in Mexican stock market are more prone to experience larger potential losses than investors with short positions during local currency depreciation and financial crisis periods.

Keywords : devaluations; financial crises; emerging financial markets; value at risk; extreme value theory.

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