Abstract

LORIA, Eduardo. The silent monetary integration of Mexico. The empirical evidence, 1980-2000. Inv. Econ [online]. 2002, vol.62, n.240, pp.51-76. ISSN 0185-1667.

It is empirically proven through Granger Causality and Johansen Cointegration Procedure, that since 1986.1 on the Mexican Gross Domestic Product as well as the Monetary Supply (M1) are clearly influenced by the same variables of the US economy. Based upon the Monetary Approach of the Exchange Rate, those empirical findings suggest that an inertial or silent monetary integration has been in effect. Accordingly the domestic (also traditional) instruments of economic policy of the Mexican Government have been slowly reducing their effectiveness in order to counteract the US cycle. The main contribution is to estimate -through modern econometrics of time series- the evolution of the above mentioned integration and therefore do forecasting.

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