Objective

To assess the validity of a standard measure of smoking susceptibility for predicting cigarette and e-cigarette use in a sample of early adolescents in Argentina and Mexico.

Materials and methods

A school-based longitudinal survey was conducted in 2014-16 among secondary students. We analyzed students who were never smokers of regular cigarettes or e-cigarettes at baseline and who completed both surveys. The main independent variable was smoking susceptibility. Multilevel logistic regression models were used, adjusting for sociodemographic and personal variables, social network use of cigarettes and exposure to advertising.

Results

In the adjusted analysis, smoking susceptibility independently predicted cigarette initiation (Argentina: AOR 2.28; 95%CI 1.66-3.14; Mexico: AOR 2.07; 95%CI 1.74-2.45) and current smoking (Argentina: AOR 3.61; 95%CI 2.48-5.24; Mexico: AOR 1.69; 95%CI 1.29-2.22); however, it only predicted e-cigarette initiation in Mexico (Mexico: AOR 1.29; 95%CI 1.02-1.63).

Conclusion

Smoking susceptibility was a valid measure to predict future cigarette smoking in this sample.

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