Resumo

FERRAES, Sergio G.. A probabilistic prediction of the next strong earthquake in the Acapulco-San Marcos segment, Mexico. Geofís. Intl [online]. 2005, vol.44, n.4, pp.347-353. ISSN 2954-436X.

Conditional probabilities for recurrence times of large earthquakes are a reasonable and valid form for estimating the likelihood of future large earthquakes. In this study we assume a gamma and a lognormal distribution for the recurrence time intervals of large earthquakes. The seismic process in the Acapulco-San Marcos fault-segment can be modelled as a renewal process, using a list of historical strong earthquakes (Ms≥7). For the gamma model, a highly damaging earthquake (Ms≥7) may occur approximately before August 2016 ± 5.14 (yrs). For the lognormal model, a highly damaging strong earthquake (Ms≥7) may occur aproximately before July 2016 ± 5.15 (yrs).

Palavras-chave : Earthquakes; probabilistic prediction; conditional density; gamma distribution; lognormal distribution; recurrence time; prediction error.

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