Abstract

CIGARROA RIOS, Clarisa; TREJO GARCIA, José Carlos  and  OLIVARES AGUAYO, Héctor Alonso. Saving trajectories: the Mexican pension regime. Investig. adm. [online]. 2021, vol.50, n.128, 12808.  Epub Aug 23, 2021. ISSN 2448-7678.  https://doi.org/10.35426/iav50n128.08.

The objective of this paper is to identify trajectories in the saving administration of Mexican workers from 2012 to 2018. Various trajectories were forecasted with the saving administration derived from the Mexican workers salaries for their pension funds with data in the same period, using a kind of quantitative method with the application of simulations with scenarios by Markov chains. The originality is the application of Monte Carlo simulations considering specific ENOE data such as education level, gender, income level, in addition to the contribution to the formal IMSS regime in the retirement period. The results show the impact level with variables such as the level of education, which has a greater impact to the final amount of retirement in the case of men.

Keywords : Savings for Retirement; Pension funds; Wages; Markov Chains; Montecarlo Simulation; Contributory regime; G23; J31; C15.

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