Background:

This exercise examines the expectations related to NAFTA in regard to trade and foreign investment for Mexico. The literature of the 90’s also considered its effects on high tech.

Method:

We take 46 activities grouping industries in 15 subsectors (3 digits) and 31 branches (4 digits) accounting for total industrial GNP in 2014. We estimate the importance of value added and exports in association to the taxonomy of Pavitt (1984) to distinguish four types of technology industries. Using cluster analysis, two groups of states are identified in terms of importance of technology inten-sive industries.

Results:

There are two types of Mexican states in the role of technology intensive activities, which in term is related to the capacity to export. The 11 states of better performance are more diversified in their industrial structure. On the whole, the impact of NAFTA on innovation has been very limited.

Conclusions:

There is a limited effect of NAFTA on the development of technological capabilities for Mexico. There is a lag on R&D investment and GNP is more inclined to mature manufactures along the period. Nevertheless, the group of states in the northern border, central Mexico and a few in Bajio show a better performance in both the economic and exports numbers.