Abstract

MONTESILLO-CEDILLO, José Luis. Drinking water supply in Mexico: Beyond the population growth. Tecnol. cienc. agua [online]. 2017, vol.8, n.1, pp.21-33. ISSN 2007-2422.  https://doi.org/10.24850/j-tyca-2017-01-02.

The aim of this research was to demonstrate that the population growth rate has lost relevance as a determinant of the quantity of drinking water demand in Mexico, and has taken place the permanent income. The coefficients of correlation and determination were calculate between the population growth rate and the coverage of drinking water service in Mexico; for their urban and rural areas, with data from the period 1999-2013. To demonstrate the determinant of the income in the demand of drinking water, the information from selected countries was use, based in their income per capita in parity units of purchasing power in USA dollars (GDP per capita). The determinant of permanent income with respect to the consumption of drinking water in Mexico was calculate using an econometric model of the consumption-function in the light of adaptive expectations. The determination coefficient between population and coverage for the whole country was 0.036; for urban areas 0.66; and for rural areas 0.25; the quantity demanded of drinking water increases according to the increment of the GDPpc; the income-elasticity of long-term demand is 68.92% which is higher than the short term. We conclude that the population dynamics has lost relevance as a determinant of the quantity demanded of drinking water and it varies in 14,950,000 m3/year to a change of one percent in permanent income; this study object is normal and is from first necessity in the short and long term.

Keywords : Permanent income; drinking water coverage; income-elasticity; consumption-function; quantity demanded and adaptive expectations.

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