Abstract

DE LA TORRE, Elizabeth et al. Risk's assessment tool for road freight theft. Nova scientia [online]. 2015, vol.7, n.13, pp.438-469. ISSN 2007-0705.

Introduction: In Mexico theft has become one of the most significant risks to the efficiency and competitiveness of supply chains. This proposal aims to identify the variables that influence the risk of theft in trucking transportation as a preliminary step of a methodology to quantitatively evaluate the influence of the identified variables and measure the risk of cargo theft, thereby supporting decision making by creating security schemes. Methodology: The process for identifying these risk variables was the statistical analysis of available information on road freight theft with the method of principal components analysis, to determine a first set of variables of interest for the design of a survey that was applied to experts in supply chain security using the Delphi method and establishing weights through the analytic hierarchy process. Outcomes: With the proposed methodology the most relevant factors in the risk of theft were obtained, building besides a function to obtain a risk index. The proposed function was programmed in a software application facilitating the calculation of the proposed indicator for determined origin-destination pairs. The results of the methodology will allow to confirm the variables used or identify new variables, considering the quantifications of their influence on risk. Argument and Conclusion: Gathering reliable information on cargo theft is very difficult, because of the sensitivity of the subject and the inaccuracy of the published data. These inaccuracies and the subjective perceptions associated are attenuated with this methodology, based on expert opinions and known quantitative techniques to integrate the risk index. This index is used to evaluate and compare safety strategies for companies, thus supporting their decision making. Updates of the available information and future surveys to hauliers will improve the results and the security in the subsector.

Keywords : risk; theft; freight transport; crime.

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